The Distortion
What an unapproved change order does to percentage of completion
Most contractors on long-term contracts recognize revenue using cost-to-cost percentage of completion. Cost incurred to date divided by estimated total cost gives you percent complete, and percent complete multiplied by the contract value gives you earned revenue. Both inputs move when a change order shows up, and they move at different times. That is the whole problem, and it is easiest to see with numbers.
The setup
Contract value is $2,000,000. Estimated total cost is $1,700,000, so estimated gross profit is $300,000, a 15 percent margin. Cost to date is $850,000, which puts the job at 50 percent complete. Earned revenue is $1,000,000, you have billed $1,000,000, and there is no over or under billing. Everything is clean.
The change: $200,000 of owner-directed extra work at $170,000 of cost
The owner directs the work. The field builds it, because the field always builds it. The costs post to the job. The PCCO sits pending in Procore for the next sixty days.
The wrong way, and it is the common way
Nobody updates the estimated total cost, because the change order is not approved yet and updating estimates feels like admitting something. Cost to date is now $1,020,000 against an estimated total cost still showing $1,700,000. Percent complete jumps to 60 percent. Earned revenue is 60 percent of $2,000,000, or $1,200,000. You have just recognized $200,000 of revenue for which no contract exists, purely because your cost went up. The projected gross profit on the job still reads $300,000 while $170,000 of unrecovered cost is sitting inside it. And your WIP shows a $200,000 underbilling that looks like a routine timing item instead of what it actually is: an unfunded change order you may never collect.
The right way
Update the estimated total cost to $1,870,000 the moment you know you will incur it. Cost is cost. Leave the contract value at $2,000,000 until the PCCO is approved. Percent complete is now $1,020,000 divided by $1,870,000, or 54.5 percent. Earned revenue is 54.5 percent of $2,000,000, or $1,090,909, against $1,020,000 of cost. Earned gross profit at this stage is $70,909, down from $150,000 at the same point before. The margin fade is real and it is telling you the truth: you performed $170,000 of work you have not been paid for and are not yet contractually entitled to.
When the PCCO is finally approved, contract value goes to $2,200,000, the estimated total cost stays at $1,870,000, and the margin restores to $330,000. Revenue catches up in the period the change order is signed. That catch-up is not an error to be smoothed away. It is the correct picture of a job whose scope grew and whose paperwork lagged, and it is a far more useful signal to an owner than a budget that pretended nothing happened. This is the same mechanism we describe in Procore WIP reporting, viewed from the change order end of the pipe.